Mission De Los Arroyos Report Archive - January 2007

Real Estate Market Forecast for 2007

A few notes from one of Arizona's most respected economists, Elliott Pollack, on the Real Estate and Market Forecast for 2007:

Arizona's Growth Continues

• Arizona has led most of the nation in all areas of economic growth.
• We are #1 in population growth as well as job growth.
• One out of every 19 jobs created in the US over the past 12 months have been in Greater Phoenix.

Today's Housing Market

• Arizona's housing market is simply experiencing an "Inventory Correction."
• The reason for the recent slowdown: In 2004/2005 an excess of about 20,000 new homes were permitted and built in Greater Phoenix that have not yet been absorbed yet.
• Greater Phoenix area is positioned to deal with the housing inventory relatively quickly because people continue to move here in great numbers.

Long Term Forecasts

• Greater Phoenix housing forecasts are very positive.
• In 2010 our population is expected to be 4.5 million with 51,600 new housing units needed each year.
• In 2020 our population is expected to be 6.1 million people with 65,500 additional housing units needed.
• Prices are beginning to normalize now.
• Appreciation has stabilized to a "normal" rate.
• Although housing prices have soared in the past several years Phoenix still has one of the most affordable median home prices at $272,200.